JN.1 Variant Is Coming? Global COVID-19 Cases Are on The Rise

Abstract

       Recently, there have been signs of an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases around the world, especially in the Americas and Europe. According to OurWorldinData's biweekly growth report, the case growth rate in the Americas and Europe has shown an upward trend in the past two weeks, while Asia and Africa have generally remained relatively stable._{(Our World in Data)} The WHO global COVID-19 data dashboard shows that although the overall testing volume remains stable, the number of new cases in some countries has rebounded. At the same time, the detection rate of the emerging JN.1 virus variant in many countries has gradually increased, which may become the dominant factor in the next round of epidemic fluctuations._(WHO)

1. Global Overview

       According to the WHO's weekly epidemiological update, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide is still growing slowly, but there are obvious regional differences. OurWorldinData shows that the global two-week case growth rate has rebounded from -5% in the previous period to around +3%, indicating that the epidemic is rebounding in some regions.

2. Trends in cases in various regions

2.1 Americas

       The case growth rate in the Americas has risen from +1% to +8% in the past two weeks, with a significant increase in the United States, Brazil and Canada, mainly affected by the relaxation of public prevention and control measures and the spread of mutant strains.

2.2 Europe

       The case growth rate in the European region is about +5%, with new cases in Western European countries represented by France, Germany and Italy showing a slight upward trend; some Nordic countries continue to fluctuate at a low level.

2.3 Asia

       Asia as a whole is relatively stable, with the biweekly growth rate maintained within ±1%; however, small-scale local outbreaks have occurred in some provinces and cities in China and Japan, which require key monitoring.

2.4 Africa

       The number of new cases in most African countries has not changed much, and the growth rate is close to 0, but there are signs of sporadic rebound in countries such as South Africa, so be alert to the shortage of public health resources.

2.5 Oceania

       Australia and New Zealand remain at a low level, with a slightly lower biweekly growth rate; the overall epidemic risk is low, but international imported cases still need to be paid attention to.

3. Main driving factors: Analysis of new variants

• JN.1 variants: The WHO statement on May 15 pointed out that the proportion of JN.1 and its derivatives in the global sequence continued to rise, which may have an impact on transmissibility and immune escape.

• Immune barrier attenuation: The neutralizing titer of antibodies previously immunized on a large scale in various countries has decreased over time, which may lead to a rebound in cases combined with the spread of variants.

• Relaxation of public health measures: Non-drug intervention measures such as masks and social distancing have weakened in many places, providing conditions for the spread of the virus.

4. Future Outlook and Protection Recommendations

• Strengthen vaccination and booster shots: Promote the new version of the vaccine formula (including JN.1 ingredients) as soon as possible to improve the overall immunity level.

• Restore necessary prevention and control measures: Appropriately restore basic protection such as mask wearing and ventilation in crowded areas and medical institutions.

• Improve the monitoring and early warning system: Increase the intensity of virus gene sequencing, and promptly discover and track the dynamics of new variants.

• Public science popularization: Enhance the public's awareness of the risks of a new round of epidemics, and advocate personal hygiene and vaccination.

5. FAQ

Q1: How effective is the JN.1 variant against existing vaccines?

A: Preliminary non-clinical data show that the new version of the monovalent vaccine containing JN.1 or KP.2 antigens can significantly increase the titer of neutralizing antibodies and has good cross-neutralization ability against JN.1 and its derivatives._(WHO)

Q2: When is the world likely to enter the next round of peaks?

A: If public prevention and control measures continue to be relaxed and the spread of variants accelerates, a peak in cases is expected in the next 1-2 months, and real-time monitoring data from various countries should be closely monitored._{(Our World in Data)}

Q3: How should ordinary people protect themselves?

A: In addition to completing the full vaccination, it is recommended to wear masks in public places, keep hands clean, and strengthen ventilation in indoor places.

Conclusion

       The global COVID-19 outbreak has recently shown a regional rise, especially in the Americas and Europe, which need to strengthen prevention and control efforts. The emerging JN.1 variant may trigger a new round of fluctuations. It is recommended that countries deploy vaccine booster shots as soon as possible, resume appropriate prevention and control measures, strengthen genetic monitoring, and do a good job in public risk communication to reduce the health and social impact of the rebound of the epidemic.